Math4COVID

Crida per a accions matemàtiques contra el COVID-19

En una reunió extraordinària del Consell de Govern de la BGSMath, a la que es va convidar la Montserrat Alsina i la Societat Catalana de Matemàtiques, s’ha acordat promoure cinc grups de treball en models epidemiològics predictius, be usant models ja existents o creant-ne de nous adhoc, des de diferents aproximacions metodològiques:

  • Models estadístics (Persona de contacte: Pere Puig)
  • Models de dinàmica de poblacions (Persona de contacte: Lluís Alsedà)
  • Models de dinàmica de poblacions estructurades usant EDP’s (Persona de contacte: Àngel Calsina)
  • Xarxes complexes (Persona de contacte: Joan Saldanya)
  • Models d’intel·ligència artificial i xarxes neuronals

Fem una crida a tota la comunitat matemàtica a:

  • Contribuir al treball d’algun dels grups proposats abans
  • Suggerir noves metodologies de treball en l’obtenció de models predictius i eventualment crear els nous grups de treball que corresponguin
  • Promoure un grup de treball nou que pugui fer suggeriments d’optimització logística en la gestió de serveis d’urgències.

Totes aquestes iniciatives (excepte la gestió i coordinació dels grups de treball) es canalitzaran a través del compte ​✉️ math4covid@crm.cat

APORTACIONS

10/07/2020
Estimación bayesiana de la tasa de mortalidad por COVID-19 dada la infección por SARS-Cov-2: el caso español / Anabel Blasco-Moreno (UAB), Sergio Baena-Mirabete (UAB), Daniel Baena-Mirabete (UPC) y Pere Puig (UAB)
ARTICLE
01/06/2020
Early Screening of SARS-CoV-2 by Intelligent Analysis of X-Ray Images / D. Gil, K. Díaz-Chito, C. Sánchez, A. Hernández-Sabaté
 
🔗​ https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.13928​
19/05/2020
El nombre de reproducció de la COVID-19 i el model SIR. L’efecte dels retards de comptabilització / Xavier Mora, Dept. Matemàtiques, UAB
ARTICLE
15/05/2020
BIOSTATNET: Informe de participación en proyectos COVID-19 / Comité Ejecutivo BIOSTATNET
INFORME BIOSTATNET
12/05/2020
Guiding Principles for Unlocking the Workforce – What Can Mathematics Tell Us? / David Abrahams (Isaac Newton Institute)
WORKING PAPER
04/05/2020
A non-parametric mathematical model to investigate the dynamic of a pandemic / Robert Sosa, Wilfredo Sosa (Universidade Catolica de Brasilia).
ARTICLE
01/05/2020
​Mathematics of the COVID19 crisis: In the eye of the storm / Webinar by the European Consortium for Mathematics in Industry (ECMI)

 
This webinar was held on April 29th, 2020. The talks were recorded and can be found at:
 
The UK approach seems the most sophisticated – some of their code is available for general use
 
Their reports are also publicly available 
 
Their simulations indicate that 
  • a) Most forms of intervention help to some extent, but lockdowns are by far the most effective. 
  • b) The lockdowns throughout the world have decreased cases/deaths by a factor of around 20.​

27/04/2020

Quantifying the non-reported new daily COVID-2019 cases by region in Spain / Amanda Fernández-Fontelo (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin), Alejandra Cabaña (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona), David Moriña (Centre de Recerca Matemàtica (CRM) / BGSMath), Pere Puig (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona), Argimiro Arratia (Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya)​.

 

22/04/2020

Analysis of the impact of lockdown on the evolution of Covid-19 epidemics in Spain / Alexandre Hyafil (CRM), David Moriña (BGSMath/UAB) – 

 

Optimising the assignment of swabs and reagents for PCR testing during a viral epidemic / Alberto Santini, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

-Web dashboard: https://santini.in/covid/

-Work-in-progress technical report: https://santini.in/files/tech-rep-swabs.pdf

-Code and data: https://github.com/alberto-santini/covid-optimisation/​​

 

17/04/2020

Sobre la futura evolució de l’actual epidèmia de COVID-19 / Xavier Mora, Dept. Matemàtiques, UAB – covid19_xm.pdf

 

15/04/2020

Coronavirus (Covid-19) simulation / Dra. Maite Lopez Sanchez (Universitat de Barcelona)

  • – Simplified simulation of the spreading of a coronavirus video
  • – Explanation of the programming of the NetLogo coronavirus model video
  • – Play with the model in the web
  • – or download the NetLogo CoronaVirus model and run it in your desktop appication.​

RELATED SEMINARS

Jornades SCM Matemàtiques i Covid-19

Visita la pàgina web de les jornades 🔗 per a més informació

 
El pasat 13-14 de juliol van tenir lloc les Jornades SCM, Matemàtiques i Covid-19. Les jornades es van dividir en tres blocs per oferir una visió àmplia sobre la relació entre les matemàtiques i la modelització epidemiològica.
  • Introducció als models matemàtics en epidemiologia
  • Recerca matemàtica al voltant de la Covid-19
  • Debats de la comunitat matemàtica al voltant de la Covid-19
___________________________________________​_____________________________________________
 
Understanding unreported cases in the 2019 n-Cov epidemic outbreak 
and the importance of major public health interventions

Visit the seminar`s webpage 🔗  for more information

Speaker: Pierre Magal, Université de Bordeaux

Date and Time: Tuesday, March 31, 2020 – 10:30am to 11:30am

Location: Online https://youtu.be/-Wb04VViZCc

Abstract: 

We develop a mathematical model to provide epidemic predictions for the 2019-nCov epidemic in China. We use reported case data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to parameterize the model. From the parameterized model we identify the number of unreported cases. We then use the model to project the epidemic forward with varying level of public health interventions. The model predictions emphasize the importance of major public health interventions in controlling 2019-nCov epidemics. Next we will apply it to the data from South Korea, Italy, France and Germany.

___________________________________________​_____________________________________________

COVID-19 Math Modelling Seminar

Visit the seminar`s webpage 🔗 for more information

 

Date: July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020, The Fields Institute

Location: Online

Description:

This seminar will take place online via Zoom meetings – please register here to join.  

___________________________________________​_____________________________________________
  
MINDS Seminar: Andrea Bertozzi, April 23, 2020, Epidemic modeling – basics and challenges
Watch online 🎥
 
Abstract:  
I will review basics of epidemic modeling including exponential growth, compartmental models and self-exciting point process models.  I will illustrate how such models have been used in the past for previous pandemics and what the challenges are for forecasting the current COVID-19 pandemic.  I will show some examples of fitting of data to US states and what one can do with those results.  Overall, model prediction has a degree of uncertainty especially with early time data and with many unknowns.
 
___________________________________________​_____________________________________________
   
Dear All

this week a Virtual Study Group was held in the UK, with one of the problems on Covid-19. This paragraph comes from Chris Budd who was one of the organisers

We ran the first Virtual Study Group (VSG) this week, with three problems one of which was COVID-19 related from the Dept of Health and Social Care (to do with optimal group sizes in work, school and transport). The VSG used a mixture of platforms, Zoom for conversations, HackMD for maths, Mural for team work, and Dropbox for data and reports. The open problem solving format worked very well, and it was notable how effective the PhD students were) . For example on the COVID-19 problem we were able to deliver a four side technical report to government within the week (yesterday). This gives me confidence that we can expand and develop the VSG format for future problem solving workshops, possibly more focused on COVID-19 issues.  

The format/technology may be worth noting if ever we want to run something like this. Also, if the Covid report is of interest then please let me know and I’ll try to get a copy.

 

___________________________________________​_____________________________________________
 

Mathematics of the COVID19 crisis: In the eye of the storm

Date: April 29, 2020    at   2:00-4:30 pm  CET  (=GMT+1)​

The COVID-19 pandemic is currently generating considerable activity among applied and industrial mathematicians across Europe.

The mathematics of modelling, simulation, and optimisation in all its various forms has experienced an unusual level of attention from authorities and from the media. In recent weeks, separate teams of researchers in countries across Europe (and elsewhere) have been busy with the urgent task of providing a rigorous basis for difficult political decisions.

To aid exchange of ideas and preliminary results, to stimulate discussion, and to foster international collaboration, the European Consortium for Mathematics in Industry (ECMI) is organising a web seminar to be held on

The webinar will bring together experts from different countries, who will outline their approaches in short presentations. The webinar is primarily an exchange between applied mathematicians, but it is public, and will be viewable on YouTube.  No registration is necessary; one may register on the web page to receive updates on possible future webinars.

To attend the seminar on YouTube in real time, please connect to this link,

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC91b85JbKwOmWuGHP1mkUgg

and select the live streaming window, under the “VIDEO”  tag.

Each talk will be 15-20 minutes long and will be followed by a session of questions. The attendees may use the YouTube live chat to address questions to the speakers. Information about speakers, times, and abstracts are at the URL:

https://sites.google.com/view/math4covid/